Lincoln almost assassinated

In 1863, Lincoln was almost assassinated. He was on a stroll at night on his horse going back to his house, when a shot rang out. He was later seen riding on his horse without his hat on. He explained that someone shot at him and it startled the horse. Guards went to retrieve his hat and found a bullet shot through it. Lincoln said not to tell anyone because he didn't want to worry his wife. What would have happened if that shot had killed Lincoln? Would the South have won the war?